When will El Niño end in Indonesia? This is the explanation from BMKG

Jakarta, Klinik Farma – The head of the Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG), Dwikorita Karnavati, said that there were 2 climatic events that caused a decrease in precipitation, including in Indonesia. Namely, the Indian Ocean Positive Dipole (IOD) and El Niño. Dwikorita said Indonesia’s El Niño peak is expected in August-September 2023.

Then how long will El Niño last?

“Actually August-September is usually in Indonesia. But if you zoom in more detail, several regions of Indonesia, including DKI (Jakarta), still have low rainfall in September,” he told Profit Klinik Farma, Friday (4/8/2023).

“So the peak is really August-September, but there are areas where rains are predicted only later, in November. So the peak has already passed, but the drought is still there. It’s just not as intense as in August. “September,” Dvikorita said.

For reference: A positive IOD is a phenomenon of deviation in sea surface temperature in the Indian Ocean, which causes changes in the movement of the atmosphere or air masses. Where, with a positive IOD, the sea surface temperature in the western part of the Indian Ocean warms up, and in the eastern part it cools.

Whereas El Niño is an anomalous increase in sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. This results in a shift in cloud growth potential from the Indonesian region to the central and eastern Pacific.

These two phenomena make Indonesia’s dry season drier than the 2020, 2021 and 2022 dry seasons. Where, The BMKG has published monitoring results up to mid-July 2023 showing that 63% of the monsoon zone has entered the dry season. According to BMKG, monitoring over the last 10 days of July 2023, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index showed a positive value of 1.14, indicating that the intensity of El Niño has continued to increase since the beginning of July.

“Jabodetabek is an area with low, even very low, precipitation intensity. Color (on the map) blackish brown. Precipitation intensity is predicted to be very low,” Dvikorita said.

“The intensity of monthly precipitation is predicted to be very low. Of course, this will affect severe drought if proper mitigation or forecasting measures are not taken. The same applies to Java as a whole,” he concluded.

[Gambas:Video CNBC]