Disclosed! This is the culprit of the rice “catastrophe” in the Republic of Ingushetia

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Jakarta, Klinik Farma – The National Food Agency (Bapanas) reported that the recent high price of paddy and rice was due to the gadu planting season.

Bapanas or National Food Agency (NFA) Director of Distribution and Food Stocks Rahmi Vidiriani said that based on the rice planting cycle, the price of grain in the gadu planting season is indeed higher than in the rendeng season or the main crop, as in the first semester. .

“Right now we are entering the gadu season, based on the rice planting cycle, the price of grain in the gadu season is indeed higher than the dry/rainy season like the first semester,” Rahmi explained to CNBC in Indonesia, Friday (November 8). /2023).

In addition, Rahmi said that the government, in order to increase the state reserves of rice (CBP), will purchase grain/rice from farmers using hydroelectric power plants and on a commercial basis. Where farmers in the gadu season, he says, will also get a good price and a big profit, this is because the quality of the grain is also good.

“Bulog can buy it using a commercial mechanism at market prices. Availability of resources such as fertilizers and seeds is upstream. As far as I know, the Ministry of Agriculture has prepared excellent programs for farmers,” he said.

The same was reported by Hudori, an agricultural observer for the Indonesian Political Economy Association (AEPI), he said the recent rise in rice prices was due to several factors, one of which was the start of the gadu planting season.

Photo: Klinik Farma/Muhammad Sabki
Rice farm workers harvesting rice in the South Primeter rice field, Tangerang, Banten, Thursday (01/03/2018). The Central Statistical Agency (BPS) recorded that the average price of harvested dry grain (GKP) at the farm level was IDR 5,207.00 per kg, or decreased by 3.84 percent, and at the milling level it was IDR 5,305.00 per kg in February 2018. (Klinik Farma / Muhammad Sabki)

Khudori said that the high price of grain/rice during the gadu planting season, namely June-September, and not during the main harvest season in February-May, is normal. However, he did not deny that the current price is quite high above the cost of goods sold (CCO).

“HPC for harvested Dry Paddy Rice (DFP) from farmers is Rs 5,000/kg. But the price on the market has gone far from the GTP. The average is already more than 6000 rupees / kg. Some even touched Rs. 7000/kg. This is an extraordinary increase,” he replied.

Hudori said it’s quite difficult to determine what caused it. However, it is almost certain that the cause is not due to one factor, but to four factors.

First, the harvest cycle is entering the gadu season, so the price of grain/rice will be higher than during the main harvest season. The second factor, according to Khudori, is the decline in rice production. “This assessment makes the balance of supply and demand unbalanced, which leads to expectations of rising prices,” he said.

Production for the first nine months, he explained, citing data from the BPS Area Sampling Framework, is projected at 25.64 million tons of GKG (ground dry paddy). However, the data for July-September 2023 is still a forecast, namely, based on the sown area, this figure is lower compared to the first nine months of 2022, when 26.17 million tons of MHC were registered.

On the other hand, during the same period from January to September 2023, the country’s rice consumption is projected to increase to 22.89 million tons. According to BTS, this figure exceeds rice consumption in the first nine months of 2022, which reached 22.62 million tons.

“Taking a closer look, the national balance of rice (production minus monthly consumption) started to run into deficit again from July, August and September 2023. The total three-month rice shortfall is estimated at 420,000 tons after five consecutive months. the balance of rice was in surplus of 4.35 Mt. The surplus in the off-season or main crop was due to the fact that the productivity of the harvested area in March and April was very high, so that grain production in March was 8.89 Mt, and in April 6.24 million tons of GKG,” he explained.

In addition, the third factor is related to El Niño. Although El Niño is not new, the news and coverage of El Niño is quite extensive, especially its impact on the agricultural sector.

“According to the estimates of a number of parties, rice production will be reduced by 1.5 million tons of GKG. In fact, some predict that rice production will drop by up to 5%. If the latter happens, then it is quite large,” he said.

Then a fourth factor, the emergence of a global dynamic that is reflected in the policies of rice exporting countries that tend to be restrictive, of which India is one.

“It will affect countries that depended on rice imports from India. Indonesia is importing from India mainly broken rice, which will not really be directly influenced by Indian policies. But such sentiments are everywhere, ”he explained.

According to Hudori, it is a number of different factors that have caused grain/rice prices to continue to rise.

[Gambas:Video CNBC]

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